First year following ETF debut, Galaxy anticipates a 74% gain in Bitcoin prices.
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Presently, Bitcoin has witnessed a staggering 74% surge, catapulting its value beyond the $59,000 mark, and this doesn’t even account for what experts are calling “second-order effects,” as indicated by Galaxy Digital.
Galaxy Digital, a prominent figure in the world of cryptocurrency investments, projects that Bitcoin’s price, currently resting at $34,007, will experience a substantial 74.1% upswing within the inaugural year of introducing spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. These estimations come from the keen insights of Charles Yu, a research associate at Galaxy Digital, as shared in an informative blog post dated October 24th.
In Yu’s assessment, the total addressable market size for Bitcoin ETFs is poised to reach a staggering $14.4 trillion in the first year post-launch. The 74% figure is derived from a meticulous evaluation of the potential price impact of fund inflows into Bitcoin ETF products, with gold ETFs serving as a benchmark for comparison.
Breaking down the estimates further, Yu anticipates that Bitcoin’s price will observe a 6.2% increment in the initial month following the ETF launch. However, this rate is projected to exhibit a gradual descent, eventually settling at a 3.7% monthly increase by the end of the first year. It’s worth noting that Yu’s calculations are based on Bitcoin price data as of September 30th, and if this projection holds true, Bitcoin could potentially soar to a formidable $59,200.
Markus Thielen, who serves as the head of research at Matrixport, a digital asset financial services firm, echoes a similar sentiment in a post published on October 19th. His estimation suggests that, pending the approval of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application, Bitcoin’s value could surge to anywhere between $42,000 and $56,000.
Furthermore, Yu envisions that, in the second year following the ETF’s launch, the addressable market size for U.S. Bitcoin ETFs will scale to an impressive $26.5 trillion, eventually reaching a colossal $39.6 trillion in the third year. While Yu acknowledges the potential impact of delays or denials in the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, he asserts that these estimations err on the side of caution and do not factor in the ripple effects, or “second-order effects,” that could follow an official nod to spot Bitcoin ETFs.
In the short term, Yu anticipates that other global and international markets will follow in the footsteps of the United States, granting approval and offering similar Bitcoin ETF options to a broader spectrum of investors. He concludes by suggesting that 2024 may hold great promise for Bitcoin, buoyed by ETF inflows, the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April 2024, and the tantalizing possibility of interest rates reaching their peak in the near future.
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